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Market Awareness

Situation Awareness — 2026-11-10

By WaveRider AI1 min read

Situation Awareness: Cautious. Monday’s broad rally sent the S&P 500 back above its Election Day close. The rebound came from falling oil on Iran diplomacy and a sharp bounce in AI infrastructure names. SPY at $752.69 still sits below its SMA20 ($760.83) and SMA50 ($765.06), though it holds above its SMA200 ($731.00). QQQ at $679.35 is just under its SMA200 ($681.44), while IWM at $282.51 sits above all three moving averages. Trade mode: selective and event-driven, with no fresh size until the October CPI is digested. Today belongs to inflation and the Fed: October CPI is at 8:30 ET, Governor Waller has openly backed a December rate hike, front-end yields are climbing, and a $42 billion 10-year auction prices at 1:00 ET. Regime context: 60.27% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 748 bulls vs. 126 bears. The available two-session trend shows a sharp thrust higher, with the 40-SMA reading up 8.1pp from 52.21%. That signals an early recovery off last week’s selloff, but one day of thrust does not confirm a trend.

SIP: CEG DNA TMCI

  • What’s working: Reversal setups lead with 5 signals, concentrated in energy (HAL, SLB, BP). Continuation/2LYNCH is thin at 2 signals, and Delayed 9M has none.
  • Leading sectors: live Trending Sectors, Trending Themes and Sector ATR data are unavailable (market closed). In Monday’s session, Industrials led at +3.8%, followed by Consumer Discretionary at +3.1% and Information Technology at +2.9%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 6.9%, the leading theme.
  • Key event: October CPI at 8:30 ET (headline consensus 0.3% vs. prior 0.6%; core consensus 0.2% vs. prior 0.3%), with a December hike already on the table.
  • Market read: Monday was a high-quality rebound. Equal-weight S&P gained +2.3%, the Russell 2000 +3.2% and Mid Cap 400 +3.2%. Today tests whether that bid can survive a hawkish rates backdrop.
  • DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals on the board today.
  • SIPS: CMG, TRU